National Political Equations

The equations in politics are much more complicated than those in algebra, and are determined by very complex factors. Geography, history, language, religion, sociology and psychology have more determining powers than principles of political science. Sometimes it’s a tightrope walk and you never know when the mighty Humpty Dumpty might have a great fall.

Heavyweight politicians have waited in vain biding their time to become prime ministers while lightweights have sat on the coveted chair, even if for a short time, though the electorate did not have the slightest pre-electoral cue. For example, the chair has eluded octogenarian L K Advani while Deve Gowda and I K Gujral  made it to the prime ministerial chair.

With the General Elections 2014 in mind, the national political alignments have already started shifting. Looking at the way the situation is developing, the regional parties with their strong leaders will have a big say in deciding the national government. In some states it will be the Congress led United Progressive Alliance v/s the Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Front: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, etc. But In most states it will be a national party, either Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party, against a predominant regional organization: Congress v/s the Communist combine in Kerala, Congress against either AIDMK or DMK in Tamil Nadu, Congress v/s one or two of the regional outfits in Andhra Pradesh, Congress against  Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, Congress in a triangular fight against the Communist front and Trinamool Congress in Bengal. There will be four parties fighting for their place under the sun in Uttar Pradesh: SJP, BSP, BJP and the Congress. In Bihar it will be Janata Dal (United) with or without BJP v/s rest of the parties including a very marginalised Congress.

There is a possibility of three combinations emerging either before or after the elections: a realigned UPA, a realigned NDA or a Third/National Front consisting of regional parties with or without the Communist parties.

In case the UPA or the NDA can form a government with old and new allies, it is likely to be a stable government which can be expected to almost complete the term of office, as it has happened since 1999. But if the regional parties come together to form a new/third/national front, then stability is not to be expected. It will be like he period between 1996 and 1999 when we had general elections almost every alternate year. What will be their ideology or common minimum programme?  There will be conflicts within, among the left of the centre and right of the centre ideologies. There will be regional demands for finance as well as power sharing. And who will be the Prime Minister of the country? Will it be Nitish Kumar or Mulayam Singh Yadav? Could it be Mayawati or Mamata or Jayalalitha? Or some other dark horse as it happened in 1996-98? Almost all the regional leaders are ambitious blowing hot and cold on a higher frequency than the national leaders of national parties. They are also generally more populist and less pragmatic than those at the national level.

Sharad Pawar may also join the third force if the going is good, and claim leadership. He and his party leaders have said recently that they are committed to the UPA till 2014. Mayawati could easily align with any front provided her bête noire Mulayam is not a part of it.

Who becomes the Prime Minister if the NDA wins? For Narendra Modi to claim the top post the BJP will have to win big numbers. The possibility of him being PM might polarize the electorate and parties to such an extent that BJP may end with small numbers. L K Advani has not yet given up his dream and has recently been cultivating the image of a leader mellowed with age. More parties and their leaders are likely to back Advani rather than Modi if the NDA is to form the government.

What happens if UPA gets the numbers? Will Dr Manmohan Singh continue in spite of being an octogenarian? Will Rahul Gandhi take up the ultimate challenge and assume leadership? Will Chidambaram be the next choice? Or will a dark horse emerge? These are difficult questions in these difficult days for the Congress.

There is a lot of mess in our current politics. Who will clear the mess? No leader seems to be on the horizon who can take all the people of India with him in a decisive way. A give and take attitude seems to be the most likely to succeed. Unfortunately, the way Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejrival are going, they don’t seem to be in the right political direction. But they will change the course to some extent, enabling one of the three forces (NDA/UPA/Third Front) to form the government, depending on what strategies unfold in the coming days and months.

Published in The Navhind Times, Panorama 14.10.2012