War on Corruption

Corruption, the word has become so common, the phenomenon so all-pervasive. The focus of the activists and the media is now on corruption as never before. The otherwise prevailing sense of helplessness has made at least a little space for a ray of hope. Corruption has always been there in our country in some form or the other. But its tentacles have spread big, far and wide in recent times. It has almost become illegally institutionalized. Now that the moment has arrived, the focus must continue and the battles too.

There are different types of battles being fought currently. First, the inter party fights, each party pointing fingers at the other, magnifying the misdeeds of others while concealing and defending their own. Second, the NGO’s and others who take it upon themselves to investigate and point out corruption in specific areas of their interest. Third, people’s movements that spring up when they decide to take up particular cases that affect them. These are sometimes local, sometimes regional. Fourth, the national movement that is taking shape in spite of ups and downs, differences and divisions. It started under the leadership of Anna Hazare,  spread under India Against Corruption, and is now kept alive by Arvind Kejrival.

The anti-corruption wave has brought to surface politicians and bureaucrats. Both categories need each other to successfully carry on their undesirable and dark activities. Top politicians from the Congress, BJP, DMK, NCP and close relations of others are presently under the scanner. Allegations, which can have far reaching consequences, are being made. Once allegations are made, the mud sticks even if the accused prove their innocence later. Not all the people who read and view the defamatory news in the print and electronic media, and spread it fast through social media, will do the same if and when the accused establishes his innocence. Therefore the media has to take double care before publishing and broadcasting allegations. People at large usually take allegations as truth. It is true that it is difficult to prove charges against the powerful, but the matter should be pursued with the same determination that propelled the first investigation.

Having said the above, I must bring two related concerns into focus. First, corruption is not one way traffic. There is a giver and a receiver. Usually the receiver is the powerful one who demands a bribe. It may be in cash or kind, may even be service or sex. The one who gives is in need of something, and has to appease the one who is in a position to help. If palms are not greased or other demands not met with, then the work will not be done or unduly prolonged. He or she is helpless, a victim of greed or some other vice of the powerful.

There may also be cases when the receiver is almost forced to accept the bribe. The system is so corrupt that if you don’t accept the bribe your colleagues will turn against you or harass you. They do not want one good and clean person among them. All mangoes in the basket must be rotten so that the good can’t be distinguished from the bad. To be rotten is to be normal. Guilt has to be collective till your conscience becomes so blunt that guilt is banished. I am told that the corruption is so entrenched in the system that your share of the bribe comes to you without asking for it. System fault. The one offering the bribe may be so powerful that the alternative is an inconvenient transfer or unbearable harassment or something even worse.  Everyone is not in a position to withstand the might of the powerful although, I believe, all men have the potential for it. The potential has to be nurtured to make it fruitful. Till now, the environment was not favorable for fighting against corruption. It is gradually becoming so due to the national focus on corruption, prominent activists fighting against corruption, and the right to information act. We may see more heroes in time to come. The advice of former President Dr Abdul Kalam is apt here. He told the students at the Festival of Ideas in Goa in February 2011 that if all children keep telling their parents not to bring home money received through bribes, the message may work miracles.

My second concern is that corruption can be the only point on the agenda of a national or state  movement but not of a political party. The party must have many viable propositions on its agenda, and a practical program to implement its vision for the state or country. A party can’t be built on a one point program of eliminating corruption but must have a sustainable ideology. While applauding Kejrival for fighting corruption, I wish this movement becomes stronger and remains a movement for a longer time before becoming structured into a political party.

Published in The Navhind Times, Panorama 28.10.2012

National Political Equations

The equations in politics are much more complicated than those in algebra, and are determined by very complex factors. Geography, history, language, religion, sociology and psychology have more determining powers than principles of political science. Sometimes it’s a tightrope walk and you never know when the mighty Humpty Dumpty might have a great fall.

Heavyweight politicians have waited in vain biding their time to become prime ministers while lightweights have sat on the coveted chair, even if for a short time, though the electorate did not have the slightest pre-electoral cue. For example, the chair has eluded octogenarian L K Advani while Deve Gowda and I K Gujral  made it to the prime ministerial chair.

With the General Elections 2014 in mind, the national political alignments have already started shifting. Looking at the way the situation is developing, the regional parties with their strong leaders will have a big say in deciding the national government. In some states it will be the Congress led United Progressive Alliance v/s the Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Front: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, etc. But In most states it will be a national party, either Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party, against a predominant regional organization: Congress v/s the Communist combine in Kerala, Congress against either AIDMK or DMK in Tamil Nadu, Congress v/s one or two of the regional outfits in Andhra Pradesh, Congress against  Biju Janata Dal in Orissa, Congress in a triangular fight against the Communist front and Trinamool Congress in Bengal. There will be four parties fighting for their place under the sun in Uttar Pradesh: SJP, BSP, BJP and the Congress. In Bihar it will be Janata Dal (United) with or without BJP v/s rest of the parties including a very marginalised Congress.

There is a possibility of three combinations emerging either before or after the elections: a realigned UPA, a realigned NDA or a Third/National Front consisting of regional parties with or without the Communist parties.

In case the UPA or the NDA can form a government with old and new allies, it is likely to be a stable government which can be expected to almost complete the term of office, as it has happened since 1999. But if the regional parties come together to form a new/third/national front, then stability is not to be expected. It will be like he period between 1996 and 1999 when we had general elections almost every alternate year. What will be their ideology or common minimum programme?  There will be conflicts within, among the left of the centre and right of the centre ideologies. There will be regional demands for finance as well as power sharing. And who will be the Prime Minister of the country? Will it be Nitish Kumar or Mulayam Singh Yadav? Could it be Mayawati or Mamata or Jayalalitha? Or some other dark horse as it happened in 1996-98? Almost all the regional leaders are ambitious blowing hot and cold on a higher frequency than the national leaders of national parties. They are also generally more populist and less pragmatic than those at the national level.

Sharad Pawar may also join the third force if the going is good, and claim leadership. He and his party leaders have said recently that they are committed to the UPA till 2014. Mayawati could easily align with any front provided her bête noire Mulayam is not a part of it.

Who becomes the Prime Minister if the NDA wins? For Narendra Modi to claim the top post the BJP will have to win big numbers. The possibility of him being PM might polarize the electorate and parties to such an extent that BJP may end with small numbers. L K Advani has not yet given up his dream and has recently been cultivating the image of a leader mellowed with age. More parties and their leaders are likely to back Advani rather than Modi if the NDA is to form the government.

What happens if UPA gets the numbers? Will Dr Manmohan Singh continue in spite of being an octogenarian? Will Rahul Gandhi take up the ultimate challenge and assume leadership? Will Chidambaram be the next choice? Or will a dark horse emerge? These are difficult questions in these difficult days for the Congress.

There is a lot of mess in our current politics. Who will clear the mess? No leader seems to be on the horizon who can take all the people of India with him in a decisive way. A give and take attitude seems to be the most likely to succeed. Unfortunately, the way Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejrival are going, they don’t seem to be in the right political direction. But they will change the course to some extent, enabling one of the three forces (NDA/UPA/Third Front) to form the government, depending on what strategies unfold in the coming days and months.

Published in The Navhind Times, Panorama 14.10.2012